Variant of Hope

Fauci has seen his shadow – and so we are on course for another 6 weeks of ineffective overreactions on account of the latest “variant of concern.” The media is gleefully reporting that this Omicron variant of Covid-19 is poised to wreak havoc. These same media nags are also happy to inform us that the blame for all new variants rests squarely with the unvaccinated. As usual the truth is the exact opposite.

            Evolution is not driven only by mutations. It also requires selective pressure to work its magic. Emergence of dominant variants will occur more quickly in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated because of selective pressure. Here’s why. The vaccines we have do not prevent transmission (no sterilizing immunity).  Any transmission that does occur will necessarily be enriched in variants not recognized by vaccine-derived antibodies. 

            To be clear, variants can arise in both vaccinated and unvaccinated hosts. The difference is that artificially applied selective pressure (vaccine-derived antibodies) will immediately favor any non-targeted variants. Such variants aren’t necessarily less lethal, rather merely unrecognized. However, in the unvaccinated only natural selection is active. Natural selection when applied to pathogens tends to weaken them. Viruses that give their host the sniffles pass on their genes. Viruses that kill their host don’t. Upshot: natural selection favors non-lethal variants, artificial selection does not.

            The counter-narrative suggests that the unvaccinated are a cauldron of variants spilling onto their otherwise variant-free vaccinated brethren. When these variants hop to a vaccinated host, then the vaccine antibodies act as a sieve, blocking the original variant and allowing the newer ones to pass on. This is just wrong. The only difference between a vaccinated and unvaccinated host is that a vaccinated host will block the alpha strain. That’s it. They will both foster an equivalent degree of variants. Those suggesting otherwise believe fear and shame are a cudgel to manipulate the masses into compliance with the fantasy of “zero Covid.” 

            Another common myth is that the Omicron variant arose in largely unvaccinated South Africa. This idea is a case study in logical fallacies. First, correlation is not causation. Second, observation bias is not reality. If ants invade your home and you discover them in the bathroom that doesn’t mean that’s where they entered. Nobody was looking for “omicron”. Then someone happened to discover it first. Now everyone is looking for it — and lo and behold it’s everywhere! The only way to justify travel bans and renewed lockdown measures is to pretend that Omicron is “spreading quickly” because it is being discovered everywhere. Funny how governments always choose the interpretation of reality that maximizes their power.

            Although intuition suggests what is good for the individual must also be good for the group, this is not always the case. For example, antibiotics benefit an individual with an infection, however mandating them as a universal prophylaxis would be catastrophically bad. This is also true of mask mandates where moral hazard effects overwhelm whatever tiny benefits a mask may provide to an individual. With the Covid-19 vaccinations we see the same individual vs. the collective bifurcation. Evolution’s effects lie dormant for the individual but are emergent within a collective.

            With a non-sterilizing vaccine the proper strategy is to give it only to the very small subset of at-risk individuals (however so defined). These will be a tiny minority of the population so any individualized selection toward some variant will not come to dominate.

            The political establishment is plowing forward without any regard for the unseen future consequences of their policy of universal vaccination. This is the danger of letting politicians rule the world: their bias is to favor short-term solutions that are “seen” while ignoring long-term consequences that are “unseen”. Short-term actions get them re-elected. Long-term consequences are a problem for future Homer. The only silver lining is that variants such as Omicron represent a new hope – an end to Covid as it evolves into the common cold. 

Competing Interests

Last week the head of a large US corporation met with his peers from other leading firms in the same industry. Although the stated goals of the meeting were a direct violation of federal anti-trust law, they nevertheless held the meeting with fanfare and total impunity. These powerful CEO’s set the ground rules for a price-fixing scheme. They believed it was in the best interests of their industry to establish a price floor for their services. Competition, they feared, would result in a “race to the bottom,” possibly bankrupting many of them. 

            It’s hard to fathom how such an event could have taken place with zero outrage from the political and media class. Indeed, this meeting was celebrated widely. So who were these shameless captains of industry and how did they avoid prosecution? It’s easy to get away with breaking the rules when you’re the one making and enforcing them. The meeting in question was the annual G20 summit. One of the primary outcomes of this meeting was a conspiracy to set a global 15% minimum tax rate on “big business” (whatever that means). The participating governments constitute a literal cartel: “an association … with the purpose of maintaining prices at a high level and restricting competition”. 

            It is a peculiar irony that governments pay lip service to the ideas of “free and fair competition” and “monopolies bad” but then exempt themselves from this very ethos. They have a literal monopoly on violence (law enforcement) and theft (tax collection) within their borders. Competing mail delivery, police, courts, and schools are either prohibited outright or de facto through the crowding out effect of direct taxation for these “services.” The one recourse people have to escape these monopolies is jurisdictional competition. Move to where the policies and taxes are better. States and counties often vie with one another to attract businesses and citizens through more favorable tax treatment. But it seems that option must now be circumscribed, at least at the national level. These governments (mainly the US) are afraid that their onerous policies and taxes will drive businesses into the open arms of the competition – that is, other states/governments. But a price fixing cartel will stop that right in its tracks. This is a desperation ploy, pure and simple. Attempts to tax unrealized gains or this “taxexit” short-circuit only signal the ruling elite are running out of revenue options to offset their decades of profligate spending.

            If the left were intellectually honest they should oppose these supranational agreements. Why? Because it directly nullifies that which they profess hold most dear: democracy. Citizens voted in their representatives. Those reps are tasked with deciding what they think is best for THEIR country (not others). But now those representatives’ voices will be ignored in favor of the wishes of the ruling class oligopoly. Are these democracy worshipers truly indifferent to the idea of the US undermining democracy in foreign lands with their heavy-handed tactics? If China had leverage to influence US domestic policy they would not be so apathetic?

            The US’s globally dominant market position should be used to lead the way toward economic prosperity. It reflects poorly on the US regime that they would use this influence instead as a bludgeon to threaten and coerce others into submission. Were the US to eliminate all corporate taxes it would spark a renaissance of investment and growth as companies expanded and hired workers. We had just a tiny taste of this with the Trump corporate tax cuts. Imagine the impact if those taxes were eliminated entirely! The massive increase in productivity would improve the standard of living for everyone worldwide as other countries followed suit. Every dollar taxed is a dollar that can’t be used to hire a worker, build a new facility, or invest in new equipment. The more you tax the less you can have of all three. Taxes are truly a zero sum game.


The lesson of September 11, 2001 is an uncomfortable one. Facing the truth of that lesson may be avoided, but doing so only prolongs and expands the harm that is to come. Removing the bulb behind the “check engine” light does not fix the engine. The cold hard reality is that our government, whether through malice, indifference, or ineptitude, has and will continue to sacrifice the lives of innocent Americans on their quest toward peace via worldwide domination. It is a fool’s errand. 

The lives lost on that fateful day were a direct consequence and culmination of over forty years of American (and allied) meddling in the affairs of the Middle East. This is not “blaming America” – but it is however blaming those in government who supported these incursions. It is blaming those individuals who formulated and enacted these policies. A patriotic reflex will compel most to reject such claims outright. The error in that reaction is in equating the concept of a nation with the actions of its governing body. “America” is not its leaders. 

The Afghanistan withdrawal is the first glimmer of hope. However, that hope is tempered by the reality that 20 years of manufacturing enemies through countless bombings will only serve to ensure that more innocent American lives will be sacrificed in the coming blowback. It is not a question of “if”, but rather “when”. And on that day Bush, Cheney, Obama, Trump, Biden – all, will be as culpable as anyone pulling a trigger. 

In order to achieve peace one must be open to empathy with their adversary. Empathy unlocks the path to understanding. Peace is achievable once you understand what motivates your adversary. If those in power had heeded the words of Ron Paul so many years ago, then we would be much closer to a lasting peace today: 

“Imagine for a moment that somewhere in the middle of Texas there was a large foreign military base, say Chinese or Russian. Imagine that thousands of armed foreign troops were constantly patrolling American streets in military vehicles. Imagine they were here under the auspices of “keeping us safe” or “promoting democracy” or “protecting their strategic interests.”

Imagine that they operated outside of US law, and that the Constitution did not apply to them. Imagine that every now and then they made mistakes or acted on bad information and accidentally killed or terrorized innocent Americans, including women and children, most of the time with little to no repercussions or consequences. Imagine that they set up checkpoints on our soil and routinely searched and ransacked entire neighborhoods of homes. Imagine if Americans were fearful of these foreign troops, and overwhelmingly thought America would be better off without their presence.

Imagine if some Americans were so angry about them being in Texas that they actually joined together to fight them off, in defense of our soil and sovereignty, because leadership in government refused or were unable to do so. Imagine that those Americans were labeled terrorists or insurgents for their defensive actions, and routinely killed, or captured and tortured by the foreign troops on our land. Imagine that the occupiers’ attitude was that if they just killed enough Americans, the resistance would stop, but instead, for every American killed, ten more would take up arms against them, resulting in perpetual bloodshed. 

The reality is that our military presence on foreign soil is as offensive to the people that live there as armed Chinese troops would be if they were stationed in Texas. 

Shutting down military bases and ceasing to deal with other nations with threats and violence is not isolationism. It is the opposite. Opening ourselves up to friendship, honest trade and diplomacy is the foreign policy of peace and prosperity. It is the only foreign policy that will not bankrupt us in short order, as our current actions most definitely will. The sad thing is, our foreign policy WILL change eventually, as Rome’s did, when all budgetary and monetary tricks to fund it are exhausted.”

Ron Paul, 2011

2012 Ad based on this speech

The shape of things to come…

The ultimate test for any scientific hypothesis is its power of prediction. Correctly predicting future events demonstrate one has a true understanding of the subject. An objective analysis of the lessons of history and the impact of a state-centric societal structure can reveal some obvious patterns as well (e.g. fear, rather than reason, as a driver of policy, groupthink pushing out minority opinions resulting in a monoculture of thought, etc.). I am willing to make some predictions based on these patterns:

By January 1, 2032 the following listed items will be generally accepted as true. To be clear I do not merely mean some obscure source will publish supporting information. I make the stronger claim that these predictions will become the dominant mainstream narrative. Just as everyone who was originally cheering for the Iraq invasion now acknowledges it was a colossal mistake, so too will opinion flip on Covid-19 over a similar time frame (8-10 years)

1) Long term studies and comparative statistical analysis will reveal that Covid-19 was not the apocalyptic threat we were led to believe initially. Differential analysis of a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions will show that these measures had no impact on the course of the virus. In other words, cases soared and plummeted exactly as they always have in prior pandemics with no mitigation measures (see Hope-Simpson, 1981)1. It was always going to be a 0.05% global death rate no matter what. 

2) It will be proven that masks actually enhanced the spread of the virus. The mechanism will be shown to be an aerosolization of concentrated viral particles by those wearing masks for extended periods. Pundits will navel gaze and suggest “in the future” we should never assume our intuition is correct and that it is important to analyze trade-offs before implementing policy. There is a 10% chance this claim will not bear out because it will be revealed that masks were entirely superfluous because the dominant infection vector was a fecal-aerosol route (in layman’s terms, it was in the farts)2.

3) The Covid-19 spike protein will be proven to be the toxic agent for certain individuals with a particular set of biological markers that can be tested for. It is only after giving the spike-protein laden vaccine to 3 billion people does a pattern of oddly consistent cardiac issues emerge and it is realized other parts of the virus would have been safer targets for triggering an immune response. Oops. Guess that is what happens when you rush a vaccine to market without really understanding the target pathogen.

4) The DTAP vaccine will be shown to be the primary reason those under age 24 were nearly universally immune to any serious consequences from Covid (as all children must get DTAP for school). Following this revelation the various Covid vaccines will be pulled from the market and a general (and safer) DTAP vaccination is used for anyone concerned about Covid.

5) Additional longer-term studies will demonstrate that Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin are effective agents in attenuating symptoms of Covid and preventing death when given at the proper stage of infection. No one will apologize to Trump.

6) The driver’s license/state ID will emerge as a de facto “Vaccine Passport” as impositions by the federal government (TSA) for proof of vaccination will merge vaccination status into the REAL ID system. Driver licenses will henceforth require annual renewals, as it will be necessary to show proof of your annual Covid and flu shots. Since a driver’s license/state ID is already required for a myriad of activities (work, banking, loans, leases, travel, but not voting, that would be racist) it will be trivial for the Federal (or state) governments to push onto the citizenry new annual vaccines. Politicians can then innocently claim this is not a “vaccine passport”, rather an “enhanced drivers license.” Once politicians discover they can mandate behavior by making one’s ability to interact in the world contingent on compliance with their dicta, then there will be no end of the items that will henceforth be linked to one’s drivers license (“to renew your license this year requires a minimum Social Credit Score of 80”). 

7) The “lab release” theory on the origin of Covid will transition from fringe conspiracy theory to generally accepted as a reasonable hypothesis and eventually proven as definitely true. Whoops! This one is happening in real time. 

My only caveat to these predictions is that I may be overestimating the time frame. I originally predicted on these pages in February 2019 that Jussie Smollet would be shown to be a liar within 6 months; the actual time frame? 6 days. So it would not surprise me if most of these come to pass within 4 years or sooner. We shall see. In the meantime see if you can beat the Covid quiz at:

The Capitol Gains

Most people may have no idea what capital gains are, but they’re darn sure they need to be taxed more. Biden’s rhetoric on that topic is straight from the populist playbook: “Why, it is so unfair that the rich pay lower rates on capital gains when you, dear sir, must pay a much higher percentage on your paycheck!” 

            First, he tells us that “the rich” are not paying their “fair share,” whatever that is supposed to mean. But in fact, the top 1% of earners pay nearly 40% of all income taxes. Their average tax rate is two to three times higher than all other tax-paying groups. They pay more in taxes than do the bottom 90% of all taxpayers combined. Even though their share of total income is 21%, they pay almost double that as a share in taxes (40%). Exactly how much would be enough to qualify as a “fair share”?            

            Capital gains tax rates of 15% and 20% (we’ll ignore the Obamacare NIT 3.8% surtax for now) are said to amount to some kind of “loophole” or “giveaway” to the wealthy. But crucial context is missing here, namely the historical reasoning behind these rates, which are based on two factors: risk, and double taxation.

            Let’s tackle risk first. Wage income is risk-free. As long as an employee does his job he will always receive his paycheck. Employers do not withhold wages or discount them based on the performance of the business that week. They do not lower them if the product that the employee helped to produce fails to sell as expected. Capital gains, however, are derived entirely from investments that are 100% at risk. What would be the incentive to risk one’s savings in useful investments only to have the government (as proposed) take up to 50% (including state taxes)?

            Note that the government itself risks nothing, yet reaps a reward (in the form of capital gains taxes) from every winner while leaving every loser hanging out to dry (if all of your investments lose money the government doesn’t give you a tax refund). From the government’s perspective capital gains taxation is literally a game of “heads I win, tails you lose.”

            The second fact that the “loophole” claim ignores is that capital gains are already diminished due to prior taxation on the source of the invested funds. Wage income is taxed once (until subject to a sales tax, but this only lends support to the idea of abolishing one or the other). However, capital gains come already diminished by previous taxation. Suppose a worker earns $100 in wages. After taxes (federal, state, FICA, etc.) she now has $60. She invests that $60 in some speculative venture (stocks, real estate, etc.). After a few years that $60 investment grows to $120, so she sells it in order to enjoy those gains. But had the original $100 not been taxed she would have been able to invest the full $100 and thereby seen it grow all the way to $200. So the original taxation has already diminished her returns on that investment by $80. 

            To offset this tax burden somewhat (and thereby to encourage investment) the capital gains rate has historically been set lower than taxes on wage rates. In our example, in which a $60 investment turns into $120, a 20% capital gains tax on the $60 gain means $12 in taxes, for an after tax gain of $48. But the Democrats are proposing to DOUBLE the capital gains rate, from 20% to 40%. This would reduce that current system’s $48 gain to a mere $36. 

            Here’s what that means. The entire $60 she invested was at risk of falling to $0. Some investments don’t pan out. Sometimes you lose everything. If people are at risk of losing $60 and stand to gain a mere $36, people will be less likely to engage in such investment in the first place, which decreases everyone’s standard of living. The tax both reduces the investor’s effective return and, to the extent it does not dry up the investment market entirely, tends to shift future investments into far riskier (higher return) ventures to compensate investors for the higher capital gains taxes. A market dominated by primarily riskier ventures is a much more volatile and wasteful one, since higher risk generally means more failures. Junk bonds will become the new standard investment

            If the Democrats were politically savvy and not devoted to ideology above all else they would propose eliminating all taxes on capital gains and setting the corporate tax rate to 0%. We would see an explosion in domestic investment and job creation as companies from all over the globe came to the US to set up shop and expand. This happened to an extent with Trump’s corporate tax cuts, though not as much as we might have hoped. Why? Because no one trusts the US government on taxes anymore. No matter how “permanent” the rates are claimed to be, we all know that just like Lucy with the football, whatever tax regime we have today will likely be different tomorrow. And the Democrats are just proving them right by fiddling with taxes not even three years later.

             Sleepy Uncle Joe is just wrong when he says “fairness” demands that capital gains be taxed the same as wage income. He is either being deliberately deceitful or wholly ignorant. Neither is a good option.

Get Shorty

The GameStop™ short-selling drama is one of those rare events in the news cycle where literally every analysis – from the right and the left – is dead wrong. There is nothing wrong with short selling. There is nothing wrong with individuals or companies coordinating actions in order to drive a stock price up or down. Value is subjective therefore price manipulation is a meaningless term. There is nothing wrong with trading platforms suspending trading, for any reason, or none. Pump and dump schemes are lottery analogues: many pay in to benefit a few. No one deserves sympathy, scorn, or accolades for their actions in these events. This entire affair is morally neutral. It’s no different than card-counters winning big and then getting tossed out of the casino.  

Humans denigrate that which they do not understand and short selling is no exception. We can understand long selling (buy low, sell high) whereas the appeal of short selling is more cryptic. In both cases, however, the goal is profit. Entrepreneurial profit is obtained by accurately assessing consumer demand, that is, understanding a market well enough that one can predict its future. Investing profit is similar. An accurate assessment of a company’s market behavior informs the investor as to whether or not it is being well run. If so, then its value will rise, whereas if not, a decline is on the horizon. Stock trading is in essence betting on yourself: how accurate are your assessments? If you believe a company is well managed then you invest long, whereas if you believe the opposite, then you invest short. The social function of stock speculation is to keep the price (on average) where most believe it should be. Both sides vote in an eternal election guided by profit seeking. That some people profit through this process at the expense of others should not be surprising. Stock speculation is informed gambling, and gambling is a zero sum game. 

If enough people believe a company is poorly managed and act in coordination they can drive the price down to where new ownership can wrest control away from current management and set about repairing the damage. Short selling is the market repairing itself (spontaneous regulation). This price-derived feedback mechanism corrects for misallocation of resources being squandered by poorly run firms. The long sellers should thank the short sellers. They will be the ultimate beneficiaries of an appreciated price contingent on new management adeptly repairing past damage. It is bemusing when such coordinated beneficial market actors are denounced while bleatings about “our democracy” to effect identical coordination in the political arena are lionized. 

If such coordinated action takes place on ones property, then one is within their rights to disrupt it if they believe it to be injurious to their interests. Robinhood™ can limit trades, kick users off their platform and otherwise impede site functionality if they desire to do so. Were I such a user I would be quite angry about it – but it would be their right. But it would also be my right to ditch the platform. One can be both angered by the actions of another while understanding one’s “rights” have not been violated. Robinhood™ will likely suffer financial loss due to their actions. And that is fine. Individuals and companies do not have a right to be shielded from the consequences of their actions. State backed governments have created a moral hazard where such protections are expected. We play the game and when we lose we appeal to government to make things more “fair” – for us. We seek anti-trust legislation when those acting in unison might impact our profits. We seek subsidies to protect us from foreign (and sometimes domestic) competition. We seek intellectual property rights to protect us from “unfair” competition. And when those seeking these protection are granted it they become ever more “grateful” to those in power. This “gratitude” helps the political class maintain their grip on power and so the cycle continues. Just sit back and watch. The politically well-connected elites will soon be rewarded with “sensible regulation” to restrict the impact that you, the coordinated individual can have on their interests.

A Time for Mitosis

The fallout from the recent Capitol Hill ((a) uprising, (b) insurrection, (c) coup, (d) rebellion, (e) mostly peaceful protest, (f) all of the above) has ignited a movement of national secession – not of political boundaries (yet) but rather electronic and economic ones. The opening salvo was Twitter’s summary ejection of Trump from their platform. Soon after the right-of-center Twitter competitor Parler was drummed out of the Google Play store, the Apple App store, and it’s entire network infrastructure mothballed by Amazon on their AWS network. They were initially blamed for facilitating communication between those invading Capitol Hill however it turns out Facebook and other platforms were instrumental towards those ends – I’m sure it was only an innocent mistake that Parler was singled out for execution. 

Orwell’s fictional ‘thoughtcrime’ is now real. Those opposing the corporate press’s narrative are no longer merely ‘wrong,’ they are ‘deniers’ and as such a threat to ‘safety.’ But the punishment for ‘wrongthink’ comes not from the state, but instead private actors. The corporate media are shameless in their hypocrisy. Private companies may be forced to bake gay wedding cakes or remain closed during a state imposed ‘lockdown’ but simultaneously have every right to refuse service or employment to Trump supporters. The putative rationalization for such behavior is naturally not ‘censorship’ but rather ‘safety.’ It then becomes a trivial matter to justify any actions if the stated goal is safety. This is how their ideological goals are smuggled in – via the rubric of public safety. Had these platforms responded similarly to the widespread and pervasive violence seen last summer (or when left-wing protestors invaded the Wisconsin state capitol building in 2011) then perhaps this behavior might have been viewed as less pretext and more principle. Fortunately Twitter can’t literally imprison us (yet). The only ‘justice’ they can mete out is one of electronic excommunication with all the due process of a drumhead court. 

“The Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it”.
John Gilmore

Today’s electronic secession differs from the previous one however. In 1861 it was the wife who tried to leave but was beaten into submission by her jealous husband. Today the wife is kicking the husband out of the house; she packed his bags and put them on the front porch. The left has wanted this divorce for years and now they have their excuse. But rather than bemoan this perhaps we should celebrate it. The first step in acknowledging this farce of a “united” states is to recognize there are irreconcilable differences. Yes the divorce will be difficult but achieving anything of value in life is rarely easy. In many ways this fracturing mirrors the biological reality of the world. Cell division follows a pattern of cellular growth to a point whereupon mitosis begins and the cell sets about dividing. Perhaps a country of 350 million is just a tad too big to expect ideological solidarity. Maybe we are more Balkanized than United and just as Yugoslavia split asunder so should we. Such fracturing of groups is a common process. It is the primary reason there exists hundreds of differing Christian denominations. Within every group disagreements will arise and swell to the point of becoming irreconcilable. The groups then go their own separate and peaceful ways. The irony is that these amicable divisions were possible only because the founding fathers had the wisdom to not bind any single denomination to the state. It is now time for a separation of government and state so that many and varied governments may form freely and peacefully and the people may form political unions of their choosing and not one imposed by their neighbor. There is no principled reason to force people into a political union at this point other than pure sentimentality or nostalgia. 

 This electronic ostracism will inspire a renaissance of new technology, new platforms, and new ways of interacting with one another that will render the current ideological and political subjugation impotent. Impossible? Just recall that no one could have predicted the growing irrelevancy of those former gatekeepers of the pre-Internet world (e.g. publishing, music, shopping, news media, entertainment, etc.). It is only when the powerful abuse their position that they lay the seeds of their own demise. 

Mask Equivocation

            Do masks “work”? We keep hearing that term thrown around by the politicos, talking heads, and media nags, but they never bother to define it. There is a reason for this. The reason? Equivocation. Equivocation is the deployment of ambiguous language so that one may never be called out for inaccuracies. If a word can have multiple meanings then you can safely call up whichever meaning gets you your get of jail free card. So when they say “masks work” what they are factually referring to is the ability of a properly fitted N95 mask to offer limited utility in limited situations for a limited duration. But they don’t mention those details. Rather, they reference that term without context in order that you the listener (or reader) will assume the discussion relates to the policy, not science, position regarding masks. Namely that they have been shown to effectively halt or diminish the rate of infection and death among populations that deploy them universally. This belief, however, is not supported by empirical evidence. Positive claims such as these (X does Y) are subject to the scientific method because they are falsifiable. That means it is possible to conceive of an experimental outcome that would not support the claim. For example, scientists once thought that electromagnetism travelled through a medium known as the ether. Experiments were done that supported the claim. Then one day an experiment was done that did not (Michelson-Morley). That one experiment overturned the entire theory of the ether. That is how falsifiability works. It does not matter if you have a thousand studies that support your claim. It only takes one piece of empirical evidence that does not and that claim is void or must be adjusted to conform to the new evidence. 

            This is the situation with “masks work.” Yes, the New York Times may cherry pick some locality that introduced masks followed by declining “cases” (I’m looking at you selectively charted Kansas counties). They may even find dozens of those. But we only need one that doesn’t conform to the narrative (all things equal). We have hundreds (numerous examples can be found at and here). But I’ll share just a couple of the most damning ones here. 

            Connecticut (97%), Massachusetts (97%), and California (94%) all have had continuous mask mandates for the chart period (compliance rate%). Florida (89%) ended theirs at the point shown. If you weren’t told could you pick out the state with no societal restrictions (masking, gatherings, school, sports, etc.)? Not only did cases rise among all four, they rose concurrently. That seems like an odd coincidence for such geographically disparate locales (Northeast, West, and South). Almost like the virus follows a well-established seasonality profile that is invariant to our various mitigation measures. And to be fair we can see that even though there is no state mandate in Florida the masking rate is still quite high (89%) in Florida (86% in Georgia for the curious). But this still doesn’t really help the masks work camp; all four states are rising (indeed the more compliant masking states are rising faster). There is simply no correlation of the proposed measure with the desired outcome. You may claim crowing roosters cause the sun to rise and cite numerous correlated examples; but I only have to provide one example of the sun rising in silence to settle that argument.

            If the masks “worked” then the “cases” would remain at baseline noise and never rise. Or would rise in some clear relationship between mask compliance rates and cases. Not even that is seen. Clearly something else is at work here. Clearly the masks are not having the effect that the “experts” tell us they should. At this point the masks serve no other purpose than as an externalized reminder from the state that we are in a self-made “crisis” that only the state can save us from. That’s quite convenient. But for the masks we would be unaware of anything amiss. A true crisis doesn’t require daily reminders that there is in fact a crisis. Ask yourselves then, why does this one?

Open Letter to Washington State Rep Jenny Graham

This is a first ever guest post by my good friend Martin Hughes addressing the heavy Covid related governmental restrictions ongoing in his state of Washington.


The Honorable Jenny Graham
404 John L. O’Brien Building
Olympia, WA 98504

Dear Representative Graham,

I am writing to you with regard to the restrictions implemented by Governor Jay Inslee related to Covid-19. This is a follow-up to my letter of 24 April 2020, in which I stated, “I am writing to enlist your support in calling for an immediate cessation of all government restrictions related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak;” and it is a follow-up to the two subsequent online submissions on this topic that I have provided to your office through the web site.

My opposition to Governor Inslee’s continuing lockdown restrictions stems from my background as a scientist. As I mentioned in my previous letter, we have known the impact of lockdowns from the very beginning: Increases in poverty-related adverse physical health outcomes including obesity, diabetes, malnutrition, substance abuse, domestic violence; and increases in poverty-related and isolation-related adverse mental health outcomes including depression, anxiety disorders, stress, suicides, to name a few. And of course, we know of the mounting societal costs we are paying and will have to pay for years to come due to world-wide starvation as predicted by the World Food Program, and the excess mortality we will experience due to lockdown-related limitations in primary care, including cancer screenings. Also, as I noted in my previous letter, we don’t need to rely on an infamously fraudulent model from Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London to ascertain the scale of the impact of these ill-advised lockdowns. The connection between poverty and the above listed adverse physical and mental health outcomes is extensively documented in the literature.

Note well, these are not due to the virus. They are due to the draconian lockdown orders issued in response to the virus. I have said this from the very beginning, as have many of my fellow scientists and other academics. In my letter from six months ago, I provided quotes from Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, Stanford professors Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, and professor Richard Epstein from New York University, all urging proportionality in our response to the virus, and decrying the “draconian measures that are now being implemented” (in the words of Dr. Epstein). Thankfully, more and more scientists are recognizing what some of us have been saying from day one: Lockdowns are anti-scientific, useless as a response to a viral outbreak – and more than useless, they are outright harmful. Earlier this month, Dr. Bhattacharya, joined by Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University and Dr. Martin Kulldorff of Harvard Medical School, issued the “Great Barrington Declaration” urging the replacement of blanket lockdown orders with strategic interventions designed to protect those most vulnerable to Covid-19. Even the World Health Organization (WHO) has reversed course just this month. Dr. David Nabarro, the WHO special envoy on Covid-19 stated on 08 October, “We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” noting, “Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never, ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer.” 

The evidence continues to accumulate. Sweden defied the prevailing orthodoxy and made the science-based decision to not undertake a lockdown. The results are in: Sweden, with no lockdown, experienced more than 10 times fewer Covid deaths than Ferguson’s farce of a model predicted they would. Sweden has fewer Covid deaths per million than many countries that did enforce a lockdown, including Spain, Italy, the United States and the United Kingdom. And what is most significant, life has returned to normal in Sweden. Not a “new normal” – the old normal, just as it was when I was an exchange student at Uppsala University 24 years ago. And yet, like so much else, Governor Inslee and his enablers continue to ignore Sweden’s success. Despite the accumulating evidence of the ineffectiveness and outright counterproductive nature of lockdowns, Governor Inslee is still enforcing his widespread irrational, overbearing, indiscriminate lockdown policies, including restrictions on businesses and a statewide mask mandate.

About those masks. Recently, Dr. Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, absurdly stated in testimony before Congress, that a flimsy cloth mask would be more effective in protecting him from the virus than a vaccine. This was a bizarre statement, given that the public health community previously proclaimed that the purpose of the masks was to protect others, not one’s self. But beyond that, it was a preposterous statement given what we know about the ineffectiveness of masks to prevent the transmission of respiratory viruses. Prior to the coming of Covid, we had data going back 100 years to the Spanish flu, in particular data from controlled trials conducted over the last 40-50 years on masks, all of which came to the same conclusion: Cloth masks do not prevent the transmission of respiratory viruses. This makes perfect sense: These flimsy masks were not designed to block virus particles. Of course, Dr. Redfield knew this at the time of his testimony. His very own taxpayer-funded CDC published a paper just a few months ago which concluded, based on a review of 10 randomized controlled trials, that face masks have no substantial effect on the transmission of influenza.[1] This is consistent with the well-publicized conclusions of health authorities in Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands, who have all concluded that masks are not useful in limiting the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

In addition to the data from scientific studies, we also now have extensive real-world empirical data showing increases in cases of Covid-19 subsequent to implementation of mask mandates in many locales throughout the world. On 10 October, Dr. Simone Gold tweeted a chart illustrating that 19 of the 20 areas in the United States with the highest number of new Covid-19 cases over the previous 2 weeks have mask mandates. And just last week, the CDC itself published the results of a July 2020 study of Covid-19 in 11 outpatient care facilities in the United States, which showed that out of the 154 Covid-19 patients interviewed, 70.6% reported wearing masks “always”, and another 14.4% reported wearing a mask “often”. Between them, the mask-wearing groups accounted for 85% of the confirmed infections.[2]

The data continues to accumulate, and the science is clear: masks do not prevent the transmission of respiratory influenza-like viruses. And yet our governor continues to mandate their use, a clear violation of personal freedom and individual rights. 

Another point about the masks: As I informed the governor in a voice mail message when he first mandated masks, and as I told you as well in my e-mail at the time, masks are in fact harmful to our individual and collective ability to fight off SARS-CoV-2. Our best defense against viruses is our innate immune system. Our immune systems need exposure to the countless innocuous microorganisms in our environment, our “microbiome”, to function properly. This is how our immune system gets its exercise. This is what keeps our immune system vigilant. You can think of this exposure as daily programmatic updates to the software of our immune system. Putting a mask over one’s mouth and nose erects a barrier between the immune system and that microbiome, that daily update. It won’t stop viruses, because they are too small. But it will reduce exposure to the larger, mostly innocuous particles that update and train our immune systems. This is madness.

I am amazed every time I venture out into the public and see a sea of mask-covered faces. I am astonished that my fellow Washingtonians tolerate such an incredibly intrusive violation of their very person. A person’s face is such a profoundly personal aspect of their very identity, made “in the image and likeness” of God (Genesis 1:26). The resemblance to one’s parents and grandparents is a constant reminder of one’s heritage. At the same time, the uniqueness of each person’s face is a testament to their individuality. It really is no wonder that the forces of collectivism and socialism want to see those individual faces covered up. Faces that give a constant reminder of their individuality, their humanity, their personhood. Socialists are not interested in people as individuals. They are only interested in people as cogs in their socialist machine. 

One last point. The WHO estimates that 10% of the world’s population has been infected by SARS-CoV-2. Many scientists believe it is actually much more than that, but for the sake of argument, let us take their estimate. With a world population of approximately 7.5 billion, this equates to 750 million people. Given that approximately 1 million people have died from Covid-19 – another number that can be disputed, but again, taking this number for the sake of argument – this equates to an infection fatality rate of 0.13% for SARS-CoV-2. Now let us compare that to the infection fatality rate of the influenza virus. The following table provides the CDC estimate of the infection fatality rate for the seasonal flu over the last ten years:

YearInfuenza IFR (%)

The conclusion here is obvious: Using the WHO and CDC estimates, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is equivalent to the seasonal flu in terms of its overall lethality, at 0.13%. And that is even given that with the flu we have the advantage of a vaccine. But we don’t crash our economy for the flu each year. We take appropriate precautions and go on with our lives, just as we have done for millennia.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic ended several months ago, but the pandemic of fear continues. This is the worst result of the virus. Leftist politicians like Governor Inslee, medical bureaucrats like Dr. Redfield and Dr. Fauci, and their collaborators in the media have destroyed our collective ability to assess and manage risk. Covid-19 is a risk just like any other that we encounter in our daily lives, yet for some reason THIS risk has been elevated to a status far beyond any other. People die from heart disease, lung cancer, diabetes, influenza, tuberculosis, car accidents, Alzheimer’s – all of these we recognize as inherent risks in life. Yet somehow, a single death from Covid-19 is intolerable – so much so that we have shut down our state, increasing death from many other tangential causes, in order to prevent a single death from Covid-19. This is madness.

On top of everything else, is the irony that we do have real means of reducing deaths from Covid-19, and it’s not by lockdowns and masks, but from numerous therapeutic options for managing the disease, all of which Governor Inslee denies or ignores. He always claims to be guided by the science, but he completely ignores it. Science is about forming a hypothesis, challenging the hypothesis experimentally, then affirming or rejecting the hypothesis based on the results. Based on the data and the science, there is no need for ongoing lockdown measures, no need for wearing masks. But Governor Inslee stubbornly clings to his hypothesis. This isn’t science, this is religion, the new faith of Covid Hysteria. This is policy-based “science”, not science-based policy.

I could go on, but I’ve taken up too much of your time. I just want to ask you, as my representative, to amplify my voice in Olympia. End this madness. End the lockdown. End the mask mandate. End the fear the Leftists are using to advance their agenda. Edmund Burke once stated: “No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear.” Leftists ignite and fan the flames of fear, then exploit that fear to create an excuse for their abuses of power. We can’t go on like this. We need to end this pandemic of fear and return to reason, and to life as normal.

Our governor has become a tyrant. He is using SARS-CoV-2 as an excuse to end our democratic form of government. He thinks his voice is the only voice that matters, and that he gets to unilaterally decide the law of the land. It is time to call him out on his despotic tyranny. C.S. Lewis recognized this behavior for what it is, noting, “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”

No. Governor Inslee does not get to rule over us like a tyrant. He does not get to decide our fate. We, the people decide. End the lockdown now. Repeal the mask mandate. Restore our freedoms.


Martin Hughes, Ph.D.

[1]   “In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks.” Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings – Personal Protective and Environmental Measures. Xiao, J.; Shiu, E.Y.; Gao, H.; Wong, J. Y.; Fong, M. W.; Ryu, S.; Cowling, J. Policy Review. 26(5), May 2020. 

[2]   Community and Close Contact Exposures Associated with Covid-19 Among Symptomatic Adults ≥ 18 Years in 11 Outpatient Health Care Facilities – United States, July 2020. Fisher, K.A., et al. MMWR, 2020, 69(36):1258-1264.

Constrained Choices

Commissioner Chuck Horton was quoted in the October 8 issue of the Oconee Enterprise as stating, “The private sector has chosen not to take this on” while discussing a public-private partnership in Oconee county aimed at enhancing broadband internet access. This is a prime example of a “factual, but not truthful” statement. There is a reason this “choice” was not made.  Silence concerning factors that influenced this “choice,” leaves the reader to assume the motivations are either aloof disinterest or the perennial greed charge. It does seem quite odd that businesses normally motivated toward potential monetary gain would simply ignore a wide open market. Why could that be? Maybe, just maybe, it has to do with the never-ending obstacle-course of state and local regulations that impose artificial barriers and costs on potential carriers (see OCGA §46-5-1(a) and 48-5-423).

In dense population centers these barriers may have a smaller impact on the bottom line, however when the population thins out, those fixed costs remain the same while revenues decline. The point at which it does not make economic sense is rapidly approached. But in many cases the economic equation is not even a factor. Monopolization-enabling statutes that limit which carriers are even permitted to enter a particular market can play a much greater role. The carriers are not blameless though. In low population centers they will often petition local governments to exclude competition from their domain. The real problem though is not so much that such appeals are made, but rather that they are even possible to grant legally. Publix can not ask the Board of Commissioners to exclude all other grocery chains from Oconee (no such authority exists (I hope!)) and yet broadband carriers can petition to circumscribe or diminish their own competition. This is entirely due to anachronistic common carrier regulations that grant such authority. When we speak of eliminating regulations, this is what is meant – silent, invisible regulations you are not even aware exist but which impact your life in a meaningful away

But let’s just assume there are zero restrictions and it is simply a matter of profitability. The numbers in the Oct 8 article would seem to bear out why service right now is focused on population centers in the county and not everywhere. It is too rural a county to be profitable if people are not willing to pay the actual costs to obtain service. It is claimed Oconee County will front $4.5 million while Smart City Capital will manage the project. It is then stated that it’s “possible” Oconee will earn back its investment. Possible. Would you invest your retirement savings into a bond that might yield you a 0% return after 20 years? It’s not unsurprising then that any company or person would not want to risk their own funds in such a high-risk low-reward venture if these numbers are indicative of the profit potential. So how do we overcome the natural reticence to make such an investment? Well, we just take the money from people (through sales tax). If you have to fund something through taxation then that is a strong indicator you are engaging in economically destructive activity. Absent a taxation backstop, such projects lose money, that is, they take something of higher value and reduce it to something of lower value.            

If the citizens of this county wish to bring this project to fruition as outlined in the article then they should be willing to risk their own money by voluntarily buying into this venture. In other words, shareholders, not taxpayers. If this is truly a “good idea” then what is the risk? I know that using other people’s money (taxes) to fund something that disproportionately benefits you is the norm these days – but that doesn’t make it right. Principles over pragmatism